I recently heard to an epidemiologist talking about the recent decision by the Ontario government to go back into some form of lock-down because of spiking COVID-19 variant infections. He mentioned that he thought the reason why Ford waited too long is simply because so many people have a hard time understanding geometric progressions. In effect, the only way to deal with things like this epidemic is by taking actions that would seem to a lot of people to be "over-reacting".
As I see it, there are two very important things working here. First of all, people need to understand that there are two very, very different ways that a natural process can advance: arithmetic progression, and, geometric progression. In a nutshell, an arithmetic progression is one where a quantity is built by adding a fixed amount over and over again: [{(A+X)+X}+X]+X and so on. A practical example of this would be someone who is using a shovel to dig a hole in the ground. The pile of dirt grows only one shovel-full at a time.
In contrast, a geometric progression is one where the amount that is added in each iteration changes based on the amount of the previous one. Let's use the example of cats having kittens. If one mother cat has a litter of six kittens and three of them are females, and each of them has three female kittens the next year, and those kittens grow up and have three females the year after, and this continues forever, we'd be tripling the population of female cats every year: (A+Ax3)+(4Ax3)+(12Ax3)+(36Ax3)+(108Ax3) and so on. It should be obvious that if all cats are allowed to reproduce and there isn't a massive "cull" of kittens (like there is in the wild), we could quickly end up with far, far, far too many cats. This is why all humane societies have "spay your cat" programs.
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| Sure, they're cute. But there can be too much of a good thing---. |
Here's a pretty good video that explains geometric progression.
Well, what's the problem then? What this article is about is the fact that many people---like the king who played chess with Krishna---simply don't understand the implications of geometric progressions.
I sometimes meet people who don't understand how interest compounds on debt---which is another example of the phenomenon. Years ago I met someone who'd gotten an interest-free home mortgage from a wealthy uncle and he didn't seem to understand what a tremendous thing this was. This was back about 25 years ago, and at that time the five year fixed mortgage rate was something like 10%. If that sounds freakishly high, how about we do a very simple calculation at less than that, 7%, over 30 years.
I went to one of those on-line mortgage calculators and plugged in the following info:
- $300,000 home
- $20,000 down payment
- 30 year fixed rate
- 7% interest
The results were a monthly payment of $2,000 and total interest paid out over 30 years came to $260,000. At zero % interest, that changes to $1200/month and, of course, zero total interest.
(This is a classic example of how "inter-generational wealth" has a tremendous impact on the lives of middle and upper class people.)
As I hope people now realize, the result of exponential growth can be a lot more than people intuitively realize---like the interest on their mortgage being almost as much as what they paid for their house, or, a geometric progression of rice grains on a chess board can eat up the entire world's food supply.
There's one more thing that counters people's intuitive thinking: where the biggest hit kicks in. Consider the chessboard and rice example. I suspect a lot of people wouldn't realize that three quarters of the entire amount of rice that gets used up happens on the last two squares. That's because the second last square is double what came before, and the last square is double that. This means that the time for the Raja to kick over the board and have the chess master sent to the dungeon is when the progression is still just a few grains of rice on a square. By waiting until what is happening becomes obvious to everyone, it's just about too late to avoid bankrupting the kingdom.
It's exactly the same thing with the pandemic. If we wait until it is immediately obvious that the virus is getting out of control, it will totally engulf the province. That means that in order to avoid a catastrophe, the province needs to look like it is totally "over-reacting". That's just intrinsic to the nature of geometric progression.
And that's the problem with Doug Ford---as suggested by the unnamed scientist I mentioned in the beginning. He is obviously "going with his gut", and it is telling him that if he shuts down the province while there is still room in ICUs and only a few thousand people getting the bug every day, he's wildly over-reacting . But the truth is, by waiting so long, he is really wildly "under-reacting"---and this will create a lot of unnecessary misery.
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I was surprised to see that I've been putting out this news blog since 2016. Time seems to go by faster as I age---which is far from a novel observation. But it is a long time to be putting out stories on a regular basis. If you think these posts are useful---and you can afford it---why not subscribe? You get to decide how much you pay every month, and it's easy to do through Patreon and Pay Pal.
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It's always hard to ascribe motivations to public figures simply because you never really know what is going on between their ears. That's why many groups will immediately censor an individual for suggesting a reason why a person does a certain thing. But I'm my own person and sometimes why people do what they do is key to the story---and I think that this is one of those instances.
Watching the entire Ford saga from Toronto city Council to becoming the Premier I couldn't help but think that this is a classic example of someone who thinks he knows better than all those damn "pointy-headed experts". But to give the man his due, he is a successful politician who got elected Premier. That means he has his "finger on the pulse" of a lot of citizens in this province. More's the pity.
On one level I "get" what is going on here. I sometimes do calculations based on my research that produce results that I feel "in my gut" can't possibly be true. One example is a story I wrote about the real cost of "free" parking. I sweated over various calculations---including the one that suggests that that in Guelph the cost of below-ground parking adds something like $66,000 to the cost of the average condominium. I still feel a little weird using that number, but whenever I look at the calculations I can't find any mistakes.
But I think the difference between myself and someone like the Premier (I'm speculating here) is that I have learned to "suck it up" and live with the anxiety that I feel when my "gut instinct" conflicts with the information I see before me. I don't think the Premier worries about stuff like this. Instead I can only assume he is used to following his instincts and just bullies anyone who disagrees with him until they give up trying to change his mind. Unfortunately, he's the Premier of the province and we all have to live with the results of way his brain works.
I want to explore this issue in a little more detail, but this post is already long enough. Next week I hope to expand on the issue of why some people see the world so differently than others.
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